[Football- Conference League] 7.3/ 18:45 Lazio- AZ Alkmaar
Posted: 07 Mar 2023 16:51
[Football- Conference League] 7.3/ 18:45 Lazio- AZ Alkmaar
Not the most glamorous European match up on the schedule today but think there is good value in this one with a low scoring game on the cards.
Lazio have been one of the best teams defensively in Europe this season, conceding only 19 goals in 25 league games. They have not conceded a single goal in their last 5 matches across both Serie A and European competition, including a 1-0 win away from home against Napoli who have been scoring for fun this season.
They take on AZ Alkmaar, who currently sit 3rd in the Dutch top division. Alkmaar have scored 50 goals this season in 24 games so they are clearly capable of scoring, but there is a significant difference in quality between the majority of teams in the Dutch league and someone like Lazio, and they will have a much harder time finding success on the road in this one. Their defence is also decent, having conceded 28 in 24 games albeit against weaker opposition.
I think the most likely way this bet succeeds is that Lazio keep a clean sheet. Alkmaar are missing a whole host of players with injury, so not only will that impact their ability to score, but I think they will look to keep this one close and absorb a lot of pressure in the hope they can chase a result in the second leg at home.
While Lazio are clear favourites and expected to win, I’m not convinced they will score freely either. They will be missing their best striker with Immobile ruled out with injury, and they haven’t been scoring freely even with him the team. They’ve only scored 8 goals in their last 9 competitive games, so with Alkmaar likely to park the bus, I think they will struggle to score multiple goals.
I am expecting this one to finish 1-0 or even 0-0. I strongly considered “BTTS - NO” as I think Alkmaar will struggle to score, but the unders at least protects against a 1-1 result, which I think is more likely than a 3-0 Lazio win.
under 2,5 @1,85 Bet365
FT 1:2
Not the most glamorous European match up on the schedule today but think there is good value in this one with a low scoring game on the cards.
Lazio have been one of the best teams defensively in Europe this season, conceding only 19 goals in 25 league games. They have not conceded a single goal in their last 5 matches across both Serie A and European competition, including a 1-0 win away from home against Napoli who have been scoring for fun this season.
They take on AZ Alkmaar, who currently sit 3rd in the Dutch top division. Alkmaar have scored 50 goals this season in 24 games so they are clearly capable of scoring, but there is a significant difference in quality between the majority of teams in the Dutch league and someone like Lazio, and they will have a much harder time finding success on the road in this one. Their defence is also decent, having conceded 28 in 24 games albeit against weaker opposition.
I think the most likely way this bet succeeds is that Lazio keep a clean sheet. Alkmaar are missing a whole host of players with injury, so not only will that impact their ability to score, but I think they will look to keep this one close and absorb a lot of pressure in the hope they can chase a result in the second leg at home.
While Lazio are clear favourites and expected to win, I’m not convinced they will score freely either. They will be missing their best striker with Immobile ruled out with injury, and they haven’t been scoring freely even with him the team. They’ve only scored 8 goals in their last 9 competitive games, so with Alkmaar likely to park the bus, I think they will struggle to score multiple goals.
I am expecting this one to finish 1-0 or even 0-0. I strongly considered “BTTS - NO” as I think Alkmaar will struggle to score, but the unders at least protects against a 1-1 result, which I think is more likely than a 3-0 Lazio win.
under 2,5 @1,85 Bet365
FT 1:2