[Football- Brazil 'Serie A'] 4.7/ 1:00 Goias- Coritiba
Posted: 03 Jul 2023 20:05
[Football- Brazil 'Serie A'] 4.7/ 1:00 Goias- Coritiba
I stick to soccer totals within a small number leagues that I actually watch, I’m not putting wagers on stuff that I’ll never put eyeballs on – nothing wrong with it, just not for me. My process is a combination of a self-created model using long-term weighted performance and my gut. I review what my model spits out, if I can build a narrative that fits the output I’ll bet it, if I can’t or if it just doesn’t pass the smell test I’ll skip it. I won’t post daily because I don’t wager daily, but I am going to try to not be a hit-and-run poster who disappears after just a couple picks or fades away as the units fall into the negative – I’ll try and keep posting, success or not.
For today: The thirteenth round in Brazil finishes up with what isn’t exactly the most appealing matchup, Goias sit 17th and Coritiba are dead last and the only winless team in the Brasileirão through twelve matches. What we lack in quality, we gain in goal potential. The last five away matches for Coritiba have seen them concede 5, 3, 1, 3, and 3 goals while Goias have gone over 2.5 in four of their last five home Brasileirão matches.
Goias secured advancement in the Sudamericana last Wednesday, and with a bye to the round of sixteen they can rest from continental competitions and solely focused on pulling themselves out of the relegation spots in the Brasileirão for the month of July. Only the second match in charge for new manager Armando Evangelista, he should be keen to put on a good show for his first match at home.
While Goias doesn’t have the most inspiring goal scoring record, Coritiba matches have been the fourth highest scoring in the league this season. They’ve gone over 2.5 in five of their six away matches – in all five of those overs Coritiba’s opposition has scored three or more goals.
Goias might not have the firepower to bring this game over on their own, but are giving up a full two goals per match at home so I wouldn’t consider them likely to keep a clean sheet either. I think this one ends 2-1 for Goias with a potential for more and is a good bet at these odds on the over.
over 2,5 @2,20 Unibet
FT 1:2
I stick to soccer totals within a small number leagues that I actually watch, I’m not putting wagers on stuff that I’ll never put eyeballs on – nothing wrong with it, just not for me. My process is a combination of a self-created model using long-term weighted performance and my gut. I review what my model spits out, if I can build a narrative that fits the output I’ll bet it, if I can’t or if it just doesn’t pass the smell test I’ll skip it. I won’t post daily because I don’t wager daily, but I am going to try to not be a hit-and-run poster who disappears after just a couple picks or fades away as the units fall into the negative – I’ll try and keep posting, success or not.
For today: The thirteenth round in Brazil finishes up with what isn’t exactly the most appealing matchup, Goias sit 17th and Coritiba are dead last and the only winless team in the Brasileirão through twelve matches. What we lack in quality, we gain in goal potential. The last five away matches for Coritiba have seen them concede 5, 3, 1, 3, and 3 goals while Goias have gone over 2.5 in four of their last five home Brasileirão matches.
Goias secured advancement in the Sudamericana last Wednesday, and with a bye to the round of sixteen they can rest from continental competitions and solely focused on pulling themselves out of the relegation spots in the Brasileirão for the month of July. Only the second match in charge for new manager Armando Evangelista, he should be keen to put on a good show for his first match at home.
While Goias doesn’t have the most inspiring goal scoring record, Coritiba matches have been the fourth highest scoring in the league this season. They’ve gone over 2.5 in five of their six away matches – in all five of those overs Coritiba’s opposition has scored three or more goals.
Goias might not have the firepower to bring this game over on their own, but are giving up a full two goals per match at home so I wouldn’t consider them likely to keep a clean sheet either. I think this one ends 2-1 for Goias with a potential for more and is a good bet at these odds on the over.
over 2,5 @2,20 Unibet
FT 1:2