[Tennis- ATP Winston-Salem] 24.8/ 20:00 M.Cilic- I.Ivashka

[Radu]

[Tennis- ATP Winston-Salem] 24.8/ 20:00 M.Cilic- I.Ivashka

Cilic is a former Grand Slam winner (on hard courts at the U.S. Open) and his form lately has been solid, though not resulting in tons of wins. He has alternated wins and losses since Wimbledon, but take a look at his losses in that span:
At Wimbledon 3rd round -- He went up 2 sets to 0 to #2 Daniil Medvedev before losing in 5 sets.
At Tokyo Olympics 2nd round -- Took the 1st set but lost in 3 to #12 Pablo Carreno Busta, eventual bronze medalist.
At Toronto 2nd round -- Another 3 set loss to #11 Casper Ruud, a rising star.
At Cincinnati 2nd round -- Another 3 set loss, this time to #7 Andrey Rublev. After beating top-25 player Aslan Karatsev earlier.
Those are 4 losses, but in each match, Cilic was playing even with top 15 ranked players. And he has a couple of top 50 wins and a top 25 win in that span.
Going back to that Karatsev match, I played Cilic as a slight underdog in that match (+108). Reasonable odds for a top 25 matchup. Now compare that to these odds for Cilic to play Ilya Ivashka, ranked #63 in the world and on a run of uneven results. His recent highs are wins vs. Monfils at Tokyo and vs. Dimitrov at Washington, D.C. But he also has 3 recent losses to players outside the top 50.
I make Cilic a larger favorite that these odds suggest, and I think his strong form in recent losses has not been properly priced here.

1 @1,80 Bet365
6:4 5:7 4:6