[Football- Netherlands 'Eredivisie'] 21.12/ 21:00 AZ Alkmaar- FC Groningen

[MN]

[Football- Netherlands 'Eredivisie'] 21.12/ 21:00 AZ Alkmaar- FC Groningen

This match smells over 2.5, but why does it have such a high odds? I think it's because in Groningen's last 10 matches, they only have 4 over games. So why I think the game will go over 2.5? Because all Groningen's over 2.5 games are away games (7/9 away matches)
AZ have scored 2.88/home match and conceded 1.25/home match, while Groningen have scored 1.44 goals/away match and concede 2.22/away match.
88% of AZ's home games went over and 78% of Groningen's away games went over.
We don't need to really worry about AZ's scoring ability. In fact, in their latest 4 matches, they've scored 2+ goals, and there have been over 2.5 goals scored in their 8/9 home games.
How about Groningen? They've failed to score only 4 times out of 17 matches and the last time they didn't score was 10 matches ago (almost 2 months ago). Furthermore, they have an exciting young duo Cyril Ngonge (7 goals) and Jorgen Strand Larsen (6 goals). Also, AZ only have kept cleansheets twice this season.
AZ's attacking prowess (they have 3 players with 7+ goals) vs Groninge decent attacking prowess = over 2.5 goals.

over 2.5 @1,85 Bet365

FT 1:0