[Football- Brazil 'Serie A'] 22.6/ 00:00 São Paulo- Athletico Paranaense

Post by **Zlatko** » 23 Jun 2023 18:53

[Football- Brazil 'Serie A'] 22.6/ 00:00 São Paulo- Athletico Paranaense

I stick to soccer totals within a small number leagues that I actually watch, I’m not putting wagers on stuff that I’ll never put eyeballs on – nothing wrong with it, just not for me. My process is a combination of a self-created model using long-term weighted performance and my gut. I review what my model spits out, if I can build a narrative that fits the output I’ll bet it, if I can’t or if it just doesn’t pass the smell test I’ll skip it. I won’t post daily because I don’t wager daily, but I am going to try to not be a hit-and-run poster who disappears after just a couple picks or fades away as the units fall into the negative – I’ll try and keep posting, success or not.

Today: If you know anything about soccer in Brazil, you know that the schedule can often be tight. Both teams are on short(ish) rest. Four days for São Paulo and five for Athletico. The last league match for São Paulo was a disappointing 0-2 loss at home to Palmeiras – the kind of match that could really send things on a spiral. But they got just what they needed midweek with a 5-0 thrashing of (weak) opposition in the Sudamericana. This team is better than the 10th spot they find themselves in and I think it gives them confidence to push up the Brasileirão table.

For Athletico, 18-year old Vitor Roque might be the next big name and looks to be headed to Barcelona in January. This transfer has been in the news enough this week that I’m sure he’s eager to put on a show for the additional eyeballs that might be wanting to catch a glimpse – and with 2 goals in his last 3 he could easily put his team on the board.

São Paulo have scored at least two in four of five home matches this season – the recent loss to Palmeiras the only exception – but have also conceded in their last three home. Though I expect a São Paulo win I believe Athletico has enough firepower to put in at least one, so I have this one as going over 2.5 goals.

over 2,5 @2,10 Bet365

FT 2:1